Jack Roden

October arrives on Maui with golden light, softer trades, and a familiar emotional weight. For West Maui especially, this month carries deep significance. The island once celebrated Halloween with the iconic Front Street parade in Lahaina, a vibrant event that brought families, visitors, and local businesses together. The absence of that celebration still resonates. It’s a reminder of loss, but also of the resilience shaping Maui’s next chapter.

The real estate market moves with similar duality — reflection on what has changed, and steady progress toward a more grounded, stable future.

Tourism continues a gradual upward trend. HTA reports that while visitor arrivals remain below pre-2023 numbers, visitor spending is actually higher year-over-year.¹ This strengthens the long-term prospects for rental-zoned condos and supports recovery across the hospitality sector. STR’s October hotel data shows an 8.3% increase in occupancy and a 7% rise in ADR, indicating strong travel demand despite fewer total visitors.²

On the housing side, inventory remains elevated, though new listings taper slightly as we move into fall. Pricing continues to recalibrate, especially in the condo market where the softening has been most pronounced.

Key October 2025 data points:

  • Median condo price: ~$640,000 (-25% YoY)³

  • Median single-family price: ~$1.290M (-2.5% YoY)³

  • Condo months supply: 15.8 months³

  • Visitor spending: Up 9.2% YoY (DBEDT)¹

  • Hotel RevPAR: Up 11% YoY (STR)²

  • Mortgage rates: Averaging 6.5% (FRED)⁴

County of Maui Planning Department data shows continued progress in West Maui rebuild permits, with an October increase of 5.4% month-over-month.⁵ UHERO’s fall economic outlook notes that construction and rebuilding activity will likely remain a stabilizing force throughout 2026.⁶

As we move through October, buyers approach the market with deeper long-term thinking. They ask about resilience, community planning, rental regulations, and insurance trends. Sellers price more carefully, recognizing the importance of accuracy in a slower-moving environment.

For many investors and second-home buyers, October offers a unique advantage: abundant inventory, softer pricing, high transparency, and significantly more negotiation leverage than in previous years.

Call to Action
If you're evaluating how October’s market conditions affect your goals — whether you're considering a condo in Kīhei, a residential investment in Kāʻanapali, or acreage in Launiupoko — I’d be glad to walk you through the micro-market trends. Each neighborhood moves differently, and I'm here to help you navigate with clarity and confidence.

Sources (October 2025)

 

  1. DBEDT – Visitor Spending & Economic Indicators

  2. STR Global – Hawaiʻi Hotel Performance Report

  3. REALTORS® Association of Maui – October 2025 Market Snapshot

  4. Federal Reserve (FRED) – 30-Year Mortgage Rate (MORTGAGE30US)

  5. County of Maui – Planning & Permitting Monthly Report

  6. UHERO – Fall 2025 Economic Outlook